To Search Or Not To Search.

Update - 2008.01.21.0442: After reading this for the, oh, 123476th time or so, I noticed a flaw in my written logic. The mathematical logic still stood, but I explained it incorrectly. The updated portion is in bold, below. Sorry for any confusion.

Gee, I didn't think I'd be responding to comments with posts so quickly. This one is just too good to pass up, though, as it presents an excellent exercise in critical thinking and analysis.

Kt writes: I know this blog isn't a question answer thing, but I'm gonna ask you anyway. What's the point in searching for something you can never find? If you need me to elaborate I will, but I'm hoping not because I want the initial reaction.

Well... There are a couple ways to address that question. There is the philosophical way, and the scientific way. Let's take the philosophical first.

The question assumes that you are (a) already searching and (b) already know that you can't find it. This means that the search is the answer, rather than whatever it is you're searching for. The search is it's own result. Now, if we don't make any of those particular assumptions, then we assume that you have started searching, but are now in doubt of the result's existence. In this case, you have to make a determination as to whether or not you should continue your search. The most correct philosophical answer then, would probably be to respond with the question, "How do you know you can never find it, if you have never searched?"

But, this is a skeptical / science and critical thinking blog, so for the scientific answer, let's do it my way: With math.

Note to math gurus: This is a thought exercise and not meant to be a complete theory. Just roll with it, 'k?

First, I'm going to show you a matrix. (I love matrices.) This describes the best to worst result based on each assumption. Positive numbers are positive results, negative numbers are negative results.

	Does Exist	Does Not Exist	Best Option
Search	2	-2	0
Don't Search	-1	1	0

The results, of course, are potential multiples, based on the value of the result in question, so the first thing we do is we decide how valuable the result is. Finding a dollar you carelessly left somewhere around the house is maybe a factor of 1. So your result range is somewhere between 2 and 2 Not a big change in value. Make that a one hundred dollar bill, and the factor becomes 100. Now your result range is between 200 and -200. So we see that the risk to reward ratio increases with the value of the goal. Now think about what this means when we change the goal from a one hundred dollar bill, to a cure for cancer. The reward and risk increase exponentially. For the sake of argument, let's say that it's a 100 dollar bill, and multiply the overall results by the value.

	Does Exist	Does Not Exist	Best Option
Search	200	-200	0
Don't Search	-100	100	0

The next thing we do, or should do, is decide how probable It is that the result exists. I know I have my car keys somewhere in the house. The 20 carat diamond and stack of gold bars is a little less likely to be lying around here somewhere…

[EDIT 2008.01.21.0442 by D]
On a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being 'not probable at all', and 10 being 'almost definite', we can say how certain we are that the thing we're searching for either does or does not exist, then multiply that particular column by that factor. Let's say that the probability that a 100 dollar bill does not exist in my house is about a 3 out of 10. So we multiply the 'Does Not Exist' column by that factor.
[EDIT COMPLETE]

	Does Exist	Does Not Exist	Best Option
Search	200	-600	-400
Don't Search	-100	300	200

At this point, the answer is a bit clearer. The best possible action at this point is not to search, since the highest potential result is there. (Best Option = 200). There's one more factor to take into account in this case, and that is search cost. How much are we willing to dedicate to the search? This is often tempered by the existing results matrix, which is why these steps need to be taken in order. This one is actually a formula, which looks like this:
((Search Result / Don't Search Result ) + Search Cost ) * Search Column
Search cost is a scale of 1 to 10, just like the probability cost. Let's say, for example that we're just willing to keep our eyes open as we go about our normal daily duties, just in case a 100 dollar bill should be around here somewhere. This could be considered a search cost of 1.

Does Exist: ((-400 / 200) + 1) * 200 = -200
vs.
Does Not Exist = ((-400 / 200) + 1) * -600 = 600

Now the decision matrix looks like this:

	Does Exist	Does Not Exist	Best Option
Search	-200	600	400
Don't Search	-100	300	200

Get that. Now the math tells us that it's a better idea to search for something that has a probability of NOT existing. How is that possible? Remember... the search cost is very low. Since the gain is high, and the search cost is low, it does actually make sense to expend the minimal energy and resources to make that kind of a search, even with a low probability of existence. Now, lets ratchet the investment up a bit, and see how it shakes out. If we make plans to go through drawers, move furniture, look in unlikely places, etc… the search cost goes up to 5.

Does Exist: ((-400 / 200) + 5) * 200 = 600
vs.
Does Not Exist = ((-400 / 200) + 5) * -600 = -1,800
Result:

	Does Exist	Does Not Exist	Best Option
Search	600	-1,800	-1,200
Don't Search	-100	300	200

Now the result is obvious. Given the likelihood of the object or goal's existence, and the cost we plan to expend in searching for it, the results are dramatic. Our mathematically best option is now most certainly not to tear the house apart looking for the money.

However...

I'm going to throw one last calculation at you. I call this "The Second Guess". Philosophically, it works this way: You may want to do your search anyway, since the fully positive results of finding the goal (Search / Does Exist) may outweigh the cost of a pointless search. Mathematically, we determine whether the absolute value of the Search/Does Exist result is higher than the difference between the Best Options. In this case...

[Search / Does Exist] = 600
vs.
[Search Option + Don't Search Option] = 1,000

The fully positive result (Search / Does Exist) is still less than the difference between the options. So the point stands. I'm not tearing my house up for this 100 dollar bill that probably isn't there.

So the final answer to all of this is, it comes down to what you consider to be the value of what you're searching for, what is the probability of it's existence, and to what extent you're willing to go to find it.

Make sense?

-D.

Wu-Yi Woo.

I have a custom Google home page set up, complete with a theme of a cute little fox going about his business as the day goes on. (He appears to live in Eastern Asia.) One of the items on my page is a Dictionary Search, set to use the Cambridge Dictionary. Little ads appear below it, which are easily ignored, though one of them caught my eye. "Amazing Weight Loss Secret!" or some such nonsense. So….

*Click*

What followed was a page describing the wonders of Wu-Yi Tea. Yet another in a long line of products which look promising, but really, promise nothing and deliver nothing. Let's see why.

Non-Claims / Use of the word "May". - Most products that are scams will make very vague claims about what they do. May promote weight loss. May boost the immune system. May promote better health. Sure, it may do any or all of those things, but does it? The use of the word 'may' means that the product claims to do… nothing. There is the possibility that the tea will have particular properties that have a certain effect, but the hard claim that it does, is simply not there. In short, the marketers of Wu-Yi Tea do not actually claim that it has any effect. There is no clinical evidence or controlled study supplied that shows a definite effect of any of this product, though there is a reference to a study by one doctor at one location. Not exactly what I would call definitive. I will do some research, though, of this doctor and institution, and see if I can dig up the study in question. I will update this post as necessary. (Gotta do your research, if you really want to be a skeptic.)

My scalp sweat may cure impotence. It doesn't. But it might. Wanna buy some?

Multiple Disclaimers. - First I want to say something about disclaimers in general. Note the word: Dis-Claim-Er. The word itself means that the following information will contradict, or at least contraindicate, the previously made claims. Disclaimers in general tend to follow similar patterns as displayed on the Wu-Yi website. If you read the disclaimer carefully, you will find that the product does not need to have any effect at all, in order for the disclaimer to apply. In other words, with the disclaimer provided, the product doesn't have to do anything. The net effect can be 0, and the product provider has an out. Think about this the next time you read a disclaimer.

Having said that, I want to point out a couple specific things about this particular product. Please notice that along the side of the page, where the various testimonials and before/after pictures are, each are followed by a disclaimer that says three very specific things. First, that the results are not typical. Again, the tea does not make a specific claim of fat or weight loss, so the weight loss results shown in the testimonials are not typical results of drinking the tea. Second, the disclaimer notes that in addition to drinking the tea, the people in the testimonials followed an exercise and diet regimen. The weight loss is easily attributable to this, rather than the tea. Third, the disclaimer states that "individuals have been remunerated." To save you the trouble of grabbing the dictionary, remunerated means 'paid'. These people were paid, quite well according to the website itself, which states that if you send in your success story, and pictures, then you can be paid up to $1,000 for your participation. I would also suggest that this would be a fairly significant motivator to lose weight, and probably a factor in the various success stories displayed on the website.

Marketing Tactics - When any health product is advertised, there is a certain amount of marketing involved. When marketing pharmaceuticals and other products to those of us who cannot buy them directly, a positive lifestyle or situation is often displayed, such as a happy couple on the beach, or a family gathering at the dinner table, with the assumption that we will want to identify with that lifestyle, and go to our doctors to ask for our prescriptions to be changed. Other products, such as traditional cold and cough medicines, are usually advertised by showing a transition between sickness and health. If you feel like this (sick), take our product and you will feel like this (well). It's simple, but effective advertising.

Wu-Yi Tea is non-prescription, so the first tactic does not apply. The second is applied in the testimonials and pictures of happy, athletic looking people. But there are other, more interesting tactics used, that I think bear significant mention.

First, is the appeal to act quickly. This is accomplished in several different ways. First, an offer is extended to obtain a sample of the tea at no cost. The offer is only for a limited time, of course. It only lasts for a few days, and you must act quickly to take advantage of it. I noticed when I visited the site for the first time, that the offer was two days old already, and today was the last day. I did nothing, of course, and went back to the site the next day. I noticed that they claimed to have a technological problem with the website, and that as a result, the offer was open for one more day. I found that interesting, so I went back the next day, and found the same result. The offer was open for one more day. In fact, after a month, I visited the site again, and found that it was still the 'last day' of this offer. The site no longer claimed a technical issue, but had reverted to the previous wording. It seems that no matter when you visit the site, it's always the LAST DAY of this offer.

Another way they attempt to ratchet up the pressure to act quickly is employed after you fill out the little qualifying survey to see if Wu-Yi is right for you. I'll take this as an aside to the current topic. I did the survey three times. Once, I entered accurate information, and the site stated that Wu-Yi was right for me. The second time, I entered information indicating I wanted to lose over 100 pounds in one month. Again, I was a 'perfect candidate' for the free sample. Finally, I entered information indicating that I wanted to *GAIN* 20 pounds, going from 140 lbs to 160 lbs on a 4'7" frame. Once again, I was a perfect candidate. My conclusion on this is that no matter what you put in there, you will be given an opportunity to purchase, or obtain your free sample of, the tea.

After you finish the survey, however, you are brought to a screen where you can enter your information, and a countdown applet. The countdown is supposed to show how many free samples are left. You are given a few minutes to make your decision, and then all the free samples will be gone. So the time limit for the offer is reduced from hours, depending on what time of day you visit the site, to minutes. This further increases the pressure to take advantage of the offer. Interestingly enough, the counter stops at -1, rather than 0. Apparently the free sample kits are on back-order…

So in conclusion, we have a product that makes no hard and specific claims, pays for it's testimonials, does not show any scientifically tested results, does not adequately screen its users, and uses several questionable marketing tactics. I don't trust it, and neither should you.

And that's *my* claim.

OMG! Teh Baibul!

Since this is the first entry on this particular blog, I thought I'd start with something light and comic, rather than come out swinging with both fists. Over at lolcatbible, we have a translation of the bible that can be properly understood by modern teens and other instant message / texting users. It's not quite leet-speak, but it's good. Quite good.

My favorite part of the bible has always been the Song Of Solomon. (LOL Version) It's actually pretty good love poetry. However I was always and still am a bit confused as to what function it serves in the bible. There is the interpretation that it is supposed to be allegory for the relationship between god and Israel, or between Christ and the believer. I'm not sure I buy that, and truthfully, I find it a bit disturbing. It's kind of a non-sequitur as well. We have a long series of "Don't do this, don't do that, here's how you worship god, here are the laws, a few stories about god's petty jealousy and vengeance, etc… Oh, by the way, your breasts are like the fruit of the vine and I want to climb the vine and grab your fruit.

Well, I'm all for fruit-grabbing.

Test post.

First post!

Gotta test things if you want to make sure they work, right? Critical thinking in action...